Seasonality
Scroll down to explore our Seasonality Tools and the Theory Section providing information what seasonality is, why it occurs and how you could benefit from the recurring patterns in your trading and investing strategies and timing decisions.
Strong & Weak Periods
Events
FOMC meetings often induce massive movements in various markets such as stocks, bonds...
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Option Cycles & expiration might provide opportunities due to increased volumes
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1st cycle: JAJO - January, April, July and October
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2nd cycle: FMAN - February, May, August and November
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3rd cycle: MJSD - March, June, September, and December
Check upcoming monthly expiration days on CBOE.
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Pay attention at the Tripple/Quadruple witching days. Those induce often massive volumes.
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What is seasonality of stock markets?
How could you benefit from seasonal patterns?
Seasonality is one of the most powerful approaches which contribute to success in data driven decision making on stock markets. This relates to all types of securities: stocks incl. options and ETF, currency, commodities and even crypto. The mechanism is based on specific and predictable patterns that recur every calendar year at a defined timing: salaries, portfolio rebalancing, tax deadlines, earning reports etc..
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For all charts above we've analysed the data of past 15 years and compare the daily and monthly performance at market close in different periods. Please note that the magnitude (y axis) shows the average performance ratio and not an absolute gain.
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Seasonal Patterns this / next week
Tuesday is the strongest day in a week, Thursday and Friday the weakest (more)
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Seasonal Patterns this or next month
1st and 3rd week are stronger as week 2 and 4 (more)
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Seasonal Patterns over a calendar year
April, July, Nov delivered significantly more gains than Feb/March, May, Sep and Dec. This is the basis for strategies like "Sell in May and go away" or "santa claus rally" (more).
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